Financial Crisis: Lessons from Cyprus Relevant for Everyone

Although officially “solved”, the Cyprus crisis is of significance to investors, savers and actually every private household in many countries. Seen as a “small scale” model scenario for a “real” crisis in the euro or, in fact, any paper currency worldwide, the handling of the Cyprus crisis offered very interesting reading and insight into how bureaucrats handle — or intend to handle in the future — any kind of lack-of-trust problem in the economy.

Said former German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble: “Touching personal savings always is a very sensitive area, and we need to be very careful when doing so. In order to prevent a bank run, this should always be undertaken over a weekend.” He went on to demand procedures and policies for enacting “special rules” allowing to push through currency controls and ceasing of assets between Fridays and Mondays so there would be “no further need for extended bank holidays” as seen in Cyprus in March.

With this kind of thinking exposed, it is obvious what will happen in many additional places beyond Cyprus if there is any problem — which in light of the publicly known financial state of many countries, including core-European economies and the U. S., is not too far fetched at all.

U. K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, MEP, who due to his role in Brussels has significant additional insight into the inner workings of that bureaucracy and those bureaucrats’ irresponsible way of thinking, has already warned everyone having any exposure to the PIIG countries and even the rest of the EMU area to “get out your money while you can”.

The question to be answered, then, would be where to move those funds to. With all paper currencies effectively in the line of fire in the event of a euro, let alone dollar, collapse, there is little use even considering classical safe-heaven investments such as U. S. bonds (of all investments!), cash U. S. dollars themselves, or even Swiss francs and similar. The obvious answer would be moving into tangible assets like real estate or precious metals (the latter also being suitable for smaller quantities than your average minimum property price). Also, some “alternative” investments might be suitable, particularly if they offer regular returns (cash flow) and not just a chance of capital appreciation (which may or may not happen at some uncertain point in the future).

When there is nothing to be found offering such return, the point for “dumb” precious metals just sitting in one’s vault is even stronger: for precious metals offer the safest protection against economic turmoil even if they do not usually provide cash flow like dividends.

Surfing the Economic Cycles

The precious metals bull market that started around 2000 is still in full swing. Despite a few temporary setbacks which, on closer scrutiny, were all caused by some sort of manipulation (either central bank and cartel intervention or surprise increases or decreases in Comex margin requirements) the overall upward trend continues to be intact. There is a lot more to come in precious metals price increases, both nominal and real. The unsustainable levels of government debt around the world have not decreased a tat and Keynesian world improvers only have one set of tools (or, to borrow from Mr Bernanke over at the Fed, a “technology”), called the printing press. Central planners have no other way than using it to put off a full-blown economic collapse for an additional few years. Even if they do, and even if they succeed, it means just more “kicking the can down the road” and some sort of major correction still needs to come. Until it does, a continued or, in a not-so-good scenario, even abrupt price increase in gold and silver is only natural.

Economic history shows that throughout the millennia the markets have always sought equilibrium (for this is what markets do). With respect to government debt and money supply, this equilibrium would need to be between money supply and real assets as represented by paper currencies on one hand and precious metals (or similarly durable, storable, divisible and fungible assets of any kind — though historically there are few of those).

It is therefore expected, that precious metals will have to have a value equivalent to all other valuables in the market, namely paper currencies, stocks, bonds, derivatives etc. As the latter do not have any intrinsic value and are only worth what the market thinks the should be worth on a sunny day, these can significantly fall in value while assets with intrinsic value just continue on having that intrinsic value. The most likely and easy-to-understand scenario, therefore, would be some sort of zeroing-in between a major stock index and the price of gold. Historically, this is exactly what has happened every time since there are useful data on stocks available (which is back to roughly the 1850s and, thus, includes all the major economic crises during the last century from the 1920s to 1980 on an international and beyond on a more local level).

To get an idea of how long the current precious metals bull market is bound to run, it may be advisable to look at the DJIA and gold per ounce in USD to be equivalent. While there are other factors to be used as a filter to yield a more precise result, current market numbers show that there is still a long way to go before numbers are at that turning point. Holding on to ones precious metals up to that point will provide the best cover against losses from paper currency devaluation and a very good starting point for moving in to the next asset class once its time has come.

Gold Bars Collection at the Bank of England Museum

The International Gold Bars Collection is at the Bank of England Museum from 19 February to 14 May 1998. The article below outlines basics of exhibits and general precious metals information for well-versed investors. More related information can be found in the Gold and Silver Bullion & Coin Investing Guide available here as an audiobook edition.

Bar Types, Weights and Purities — Cast and Minted

Most gold bars are classified into two ‘types’, depending on their method of manufacture: cast and minted. Cast bars are those made by the pouring of molten gold into a mould of specified dimensions. Markings are then applied manually or by a press. Minted bars are made from gold blanks that have been stamped out to the required dimensions from a flat strip of gold. Markings are normally applied by minting presses (as in the case of gold coins).

Bar Weights, Precious Metals Denominations

Gold bars can be denominated in different units of weight to accommodate the preferences of different geographical regions:

* Grammes – International
* Ounces – Mainly English-speaking countries: USA, UK and Australia
* Tolas – Mainly India, Pakistan, Middle East, Singapore
* Taels – Mainly Chinese-speaking countries: Hong Kong, Taiwan, China
* Bahts – Thailand
* Chi – Vietnam
* Dons – Korea

Gold Weight Conversion Table

Grammes Troy Ounces
100 g – 3.2151 oz
1 oz 31.1035 g –
10 tola 116.638 g 3.75 oz
5 tael 187.145 g 6.017 oz
10 baht 152.44 g 4.901 oz
5 chi 18.750 g 0.603 oz
10 don 37.500 g 1.206 oz

Cast Bar Weights: Grammes and Ounces

Twenty-seven internationally accredited manufacturers produce small cast bars in grammes (500 g or less) and ounces (20 oz or less). In grammes, 10 weights are available, from 500 g to 10 g. In ounces, 7 weights are available, from 20 oz to � oz. The smallest cast bar in grammes weighs 10 g, first made in Brazil by Degussa (since 1985) as well as subsequently by Ourinvest and CRM.

The most popular small cast bars in Europe, Brazil and Japan are 500 g, 250 g and 100 g bars. Ounce bars are preferred in English-speaking countries: USA, UK and Australia.

The smallest cast bar in ounces is the � oz ‘button’ bar made by the Perth Mint (Australia) since 1976.

Standard Minted Bars

The manufacture of minted bars worldwide is dominated by 4 accredited manufacturers in Switzerland, providing around 35% of all minted bar types available.

* Argor-Heraeus – Subsidiary of Union Bank of Switzerland
* Metalor – Subsidiary of Swiss Bank Corporation
* Valcambi – Subsidiary of Credit Suisse
* Pamp SA

The three Swiss manufacturers, which are subsidiaries of banks, normally issue their bars internationally with the brand name of the bank.

Since 1974, an innovation of Credit Suisse, many minted bars have a plain decorative design (incorporating the name of the issuer) on the reverse side of the bar. An example of this is displayed in the Exhibition.

Minted Bar Weights: Grammes and Ounces

Minted bars are a modern phenomenon. Among accredited refiners worldwide, Argor-Heraeus (Switzerland) is believed to have been the first to issue a range of minted bars, in 1952. Now, 23 internationally accredited manufacturers produce minted bars in grammes or ounces.

In grammes, 16 weights are available, ranging from 500 g to 0.3 g. In ounces, 8 weights are available, from 20 oz to 1/10 oz. The Exhibition displays the world’s largest minted bars: the 20 oz and 500 g which are manufactured by Johnson Matthey (Canada).

Smallest Minted Bars

Tanaka (Japan) has manufactured the world’s smallest minted bars, mainly for the jewellery industry since 1990. They weigh only 0.5 g and 0.3 g. 1 g minted bars, first issued by Credit Suisse (Switzerland) in 1980, are manufactured by 12 accredited manufacturers worldwide, including Degussa and Heraeus.

Bar Purities

All bars record the assayed purity of the gold content, expressed in units per 100, 1000 or 10000.

Although there is an international trend to 99.99% gold bars, standard bars still vary among countries. For example:

* Dubai – 99.9%
* Iran – 99.5%
* Hong Kong – 99%
* Thailand – 96.5%

Large 400 oz (12.5 kg) ‘London Good Delivery’ bars, held by central banks, normally have a minimum purity of 99.5%.

(Source of gold bar information and photographs: “The Industry Catalogue of Gold Bars Worldwide” and Gold and Silver Bullion & Coin Investing Guide; please note that the link is to its audiobook edition).

Now Also Featured on Youtube: Gold & Silver Bullion and Coins 101

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Go to https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7hLtn5yGp3gKQytlXZuUVA and Subscribe to this Channel. Also hit the notification bell in order to be notified about upcoming videos.

Is Confiscation of Gold a Real Risk?

No. Not even in the U. S., or maybe particularly not in the U. S. While there may be some risk of government interference, it is not very likely to happen. Here is why: unlike in the 1930s, the U. S. dollar has become the world’s “reserve currency” today, with more dollars in circulation overseas than in the U. S. itself. Therefore, it would be extremely foolish for the U. S. government to “confiscate” gold as this might immediately raise suspicions worldwide about something being even more seriously wrong with the U. S. dollar than is generally accepted today and would very likely collapse the U. S. dollar within hours.

Most other ways of interference with the gold market would be as unlikely for the same reason.

Spreading scary news about “government confiscation” of gold is one ingredient of the better known gold scams and are normally used to get people to buying things they should not buy for the true reasons they set out on their original buying plan (like numismatic coins instead of bullion, see Can I Earn a higher Profit with Numismatics…, above). Successful investors develop a plan and stick with it. Do develop your plan and find out yourself how high the probability of gold “confiscation” really is. Once done, stick with your plan and be not fooled by some ignorant call center agent.

How Do I Buy and Sell Physical Gold and Silver?
Do I Have to Pay Sales Tax (or VAT or Similar) on Precious Metals?
Should I store my precious metals locally or overseas?
How Much Should I Pay for Physical Bullion?
Can I Earn a Higher Profit With Numismatic Coins?
What Is a Reasonable Premium Over Spot?
Should I Buy Bullion Bars or Bullion Coins?
Should I Buy Bullion Online?
Should I Buy Bullion Over the Phone?
Should I Buy Bullion Using eBay or Amazon Marketplace?
Are There Any Reporting Requirements for Gold or Silver?
Should I Buy Vaulted Allocated Gold or Silver?

Can I Earn a Higher Profit With Numismatic Coins?

It depends. If you are really knowledgeable about all the details and intricacies of numismatic coins, know all the ins and outs of particular coins or are an expert at spotting exotic coins, you certainly could make a killing in numismatic coins. This may be similar to owning a Strativari violin, a Van Gogh painting or a collection of rare wines. For the average investor though, numismatic coins may not be as suitable. What’s more, numismatic coins do not offer much in the way of protection against the risks that precious metals investments are supposed to alleviate (see section Should I store…, above). Other than bullion coins and bullion bars which are commodities having a price consisting of intrinsic value and usually almost nothing else, numismatic coin prices depend on a wide range of factors of which precious metals content is only a lesser part. Numismatic coins are graded and primarily depend on condition, but at the same time collector demand is a major ingredient in numismatic coin prices. If you invest in physical gold and silver bullion and bars as a hedge against any of the risks mentioned earlier (see Currency Risk, Market, Risk, Systemic Risk in the Should I Store… section, above), then you would not want to depend on normal and”sunny” market conditions all around to be able and sell your valuables. You would rather want to have something of raw material value that can be carried around without an air-conditioned container or a cushioned box and can easily be sold in the streets (or bartered, if needed).

For numismatic coins, the premiums charged -– not only over precious metals content, which is due to those other factors mentioned, but also over the “going rate” of comparable coins elsewhere – can, and do, wildly fluctuate with dealers being the ones usually making a killing in the process. Just watch a few commercials and the “incentives” to buy which include either ridiculous “specials” (percentage-wise) or “great” affiliate and multi-level marketing “opportunities”. Both were economically impossible, were it not for the outrageous markups numismatics dealers tend to charge. Also be aware of a number of “bullion dealerships” that turn out to be high-pressure selling outfits talking potential bullion buyers into numismatics because of the higher margin they can make on numismatics. (Many of these uninformed buyers who fell for the numismatics trick are still waiting to see any significant profits in their “investments”, even at today’s dramatically increased intrinsic values and high precious metals prices; please also read the Beware of the Pitfalls section.

How Do I Buy and Sell Physical Gold and Silver?
Do I Have to Pay Sales Tax (or VAT or Similar) on Precious Metals?
Should I store my precious metals locally or overseas?
How Much Should I Pay for Physical Bullion?
What Is a Reasonable Premium Over Spot?
Should I Buy Bullion Bars or Bullion Coins?
Should I Buy Bullion Online?
Should I Buy Bullion Over the Phone?
Should I Buy Bullion Using eBay or Amazon Marketplace?
Is Confiscation of Gold a Real Risk?
Are There Any Reporting Requirements for Gold or Silver?
Should I Buy Vaulted Allocated Gold or Silver?